Introduction
Much of the 2006 Senate debate on the Federal Marriage Amendment (FMA) focused on how the recognition of gay and lesbian relationships has affected heterosexual marriage and out-of-wedlock birth rates in Scandinavian countries. Claiming that recognition of same-sex relationships has weakened the institution of marriage in Scandinavia, several FMA Senate co-sponsors and supporters distorted and misinterpreted statistics in an attempt to bolster their position. Here is a more balanced analysis—based on facts, not fear.
Overview
Some on the far right claim that the experiences with same-sex marriage in the international community prove that same-sex marriage destroys the institution of marriage. This claim, however, is unsupported by the facts. Stanley Kurtz, of the Hoover Institution, insists, in an article for The Weekly Standard, that same-sex marriage has undermined the institution of marriage in Scandinavia. (Scandinavia includes the countries of Norway, Sweden and Denmark. Much debate on this issue also has included the Netherlands.) An examination of the facts severely undermines Kurtz's assertion. Professor M.V. Lee Badgett from the University of Massachusetts Amherst recently authored a study examining Kurtz's conclusion. Click here to read the entire study.
Studying the Statistics
The fact that no Scandinavian country allows gays and lesbians to marry seems lost on Kurtz. It is true that Norway, Sweden, and Denmark allow gay and lesbian couples to enter into civil union like arrangements, but these arrangements are not marriages. Kurtz is comparing apples to oranges. Even assuming that the unions available to gays and lesbians in Scandinavia are akin to marriage, no evidence exists showing that those relationships have caused the institution of marriage to decline. In addition, while it is probably too early to tell what effect same-sex marriage is having in the Netherlands and Belgium, there is no evidence that allowing gays and lesbians to marry has done anything to weaken the institution of marriage in those countries.
Kurtz and others on the far right suggest that same-sex relationships are responsible for increasing out-of-wedlock birth rates and declining marriage rates in Scandinavia. He asserts in the National Review Online that "marriage in both Scandinavia and the Netherlands is in deep decline." Yet, Kurtz never gives any evidence that would support a correlation between same-sex unions and any of the statistics he relies upon.
Badgett supports her claim that same-sex relationships had no detrimental effect on marriage or family with statistical analysis. In demonstrating that same-sex unions did not affect the Scandinavian marriage rate, she points out in an article for slate.com that Danish marriage rates were declining until the early 1980s when they began a rebound. Statistical analysis shows the passage of same-sex union laws has not detrimentally affected the marriage rate at all. Furthermore, Badgett also uses statistical analysis to establish that same-sex unions did not detrimentally affect the non-marital birth rate either.
Looking Ahead
No matter what future data may show, it is clear based on all of the data available today that Kurtz and others are trying to blame gays and lesbians for demographic trends that began long before gay and lesbian relationships received any recognition. The statistical data contradict any correlation between same-sex unions and any undesirable trend in Scandinavian marriage and birth rates.
